December 19 Update: The “Coup” Attempt in South Sudan: What we know now

An Overview of Recent Tensions

December 19, 2013 (SSNA) -- The unfolding crisis in South Sudan has escalated since the initial allegations of a coup on December 15. President Salva Kiir's readiness for dialogue juxtaposes starkly with former Vice President Riek Machar's rebuttal and escalatory language. International calls for peaceful resolution highlight the gravity of the nation's political strife.

Responses to Calls for Negotiation

Both President Kiir and Riek Machar have responded to calls for negotiation, though their remarks send conflicting messages about the prospects of a peaceable resolution to the current conflict.

Analysis of Political Leadership

Riek Machar's call for a "palace revolution" suggests a move to depose President Kiir, an action that risks plunging South Sudan into a full-blown civil war. Kiir's presidency, although suboptimal in some respects, stands in contrast to the aggressive martial attempts by Machar's affiliates.

Military Movements and Civilian Safety

Reports of targeted ethnic violence and control over Bor by opposition forces indicate a rapid militarization of the conflict, with former Vice President Machar reportedly enlisting Peter Gadet as part of his strategy. UN bases, designed as refuges, have come under attack, signifying the severity of the crisis and potential for ethnic conflict.

Humanitarian Crisis Looming

The escalating violence threatens to destabilize South Sudan's already fragile humanitarian situation, heavily reliant on international assistance. A potential exodus of aid organizations could leave vulnerable populations without essential supplies and protection.

International Response and the Role of Negotiations

Urgent international mediation is imperative to avoid civil war. The UN, IGAD, and the Troika group must play central roles in fostering dialogue. Machar's participation is crucial to any advancement towards peace.